Pakistan ICC World Cup 2023
Babar Azam's men will need to beat England in their last match and hope that Afghanistan do not win both of their remaining matches

In a thrilling turn of events, Pakistan revived their hopes for a spot in the 2023 World Cup semi-finals with a remarkable win over New Zealand. Fakhar Zaman’s explosive 126 off 71 balls propelled Pakistan to a formidable 200-1 in 25.3 overs. Pakistan secured a 21-run victory (DLS) in a rain-affected match in Bengaluru.

This crucial win places Pakistan on level points with both New Zealand and Afghanistan. Despite being tied, New Zealand maintains a lead over Babar Azam’s men in NRR. They boast a net run rate of +0.398 compared to Pakistan’s newly positive NRR of +0.036.

Heading into their final group stage clash against England on November 11, Pakistan faces a do-or-die situation. Their qualification for the semi-finals hinges on multiple factors, and we explore the possible scenarios.

  1. Sri Lanka’s Role: Before Pakistan takes on England, they rely on Sri Lanka to perform well against New Zealand on November 9. If Sri Lanka triumphs and Pakistan secures a victory against England, they will accumulate 10 points, surpassing New Zealand by two.
  2. Afghanistan’s Matches: The outcome of Afghanistan’s remaining two matches holds significance. If Australia or South Africa can defeat Afghanistan, preventing them from reaching 10 points, Pakistan’s position strengthens.
  3. Net Run Rate Dynamics: In the complex scenario where Afghanistan wins both matches, Pakistan’s fate depends on Net Run Rate. Given New Zealand’s higher NRR, Pakistan would need to beat England by a significant margin—130 runs or more—if New Zealand’s victory margin is narrow, say by just 1 run.
  4. Afghanistan’s Threat: Throughout these scenarios, Afghanistan remains a threat. Pakistan hopes for defeats for Afghanistan at the hands of Australia and South Africa to secure their semi-final spot.