BENGALURU, India (AP) — Pakistan will have to beat England by 287 runs to qualify for the semi-finals of the ICC World Cup 2023.

Or, if they chase, they’ve got to chase down whatever England get in 16 balls.

With New Zealand’s 5-wicket win over Sri Lanka in 23.2 overs, Pakistan and Afghanistan are almost out of the race.

The victory means New Zealand is fourth with 10 points from nine games and a net run-rate of plus-0.922. Pakistan and Afghanistan can still overtake the Black Caps but will need to win their final league games against England (Nov. 11) and South Africa (Nov. 10) respectively.

The big winning margin, especially chasing down the total with 26.4 overs to spare, virtually eliminates Afghanistan, which has a net run-rate of minus-0.338. Pakistan needs another big winning margin against England in Kolkata to upset the apple cart on the league stage’s penultimate day.

India, South Africa and Australia have already qualified for the knockout stages as the top three sides in the table. New Zealand seems likely to face hosts India in the first semi in Mumbai on Nov. 15 while South Africa plays Australia in the second semi in Kolkata on Nov. 16.